Tuesday 31 January 2017

Division 3 Preview - The Orchard to bloom in Division Three?


Much like Division 2, this division has been wide open over the past few seasons (with the exception of Armagh's and Fermanagh's dominance in 2015). Last year, Kildare as were promoted as expected. What surprised many was Clare's emergence from the pack to eventually take the title in Croke Park last April. 8 points was enough last year for Clare's promotion. We think 10 points is the magic total here.

Heading the outright market in this league are Tipperary (2/1) after a ground breaking 2016. First, the positives: the return of a number of players who left the panel prior to championship 2016, a growing pool of young talent and Clonmel Commercials players available without club distractions for the league this year. They should have 4 points in the bag (against Antrim and Sligo at home) by round 3 where they face into a crucial game in the race for promotion v Laois in Portlaoise. This game will have a hugel bearing on the promotion. We have doubts regarding their ability to replace the departed Peter Acheson in midfield. We're not sure whether they have the players there to replace him. The obvious players who come to mind unfortunately for Tipp are Steven O Brien(hurling) and Colin O Riordan.  The fixtures are in their favour though and 4/6 to be promoted might be tempting.

Armagh (9/4 Outright) are my choice for this league. Relegated last season with 6 points, they were 

desperately unlucky not to stay up. Championship form has been patchy, but this Armagh team should be good enough to put teams away in this division. A decent fixture list with Tipp and Laois both having to visit the Athletic Grounds and the return of Jamie Clarke is the icing on the cake as far as we're concerned. I'll take 9/4 to win it outright. 8/11 to be promoted is also good value for those more risk adverse.


Laois(11/4 outright) under new manager Peter Creedon are the biggest threat to the two favourites. Indications in the camp are positive and the manager has bedded in quite well. Their fixture list is tricky with 4 games away. Their 1st 3 games are Louth at home, Armagh away and then Tipp at home. 4 points from 6 there will put them in a great position for promotion. Evens to be promoted is probably a tad short for a team as inconsistent as Laois, it still should be considered. The loss of John O Loughlin, Brendan Quigley and Evan O Carroll in the early rounds makes their task a little bit more difficult.

Round 1 will decide Offaly and Longford's ambitions in this year's league. Offaly (10/1 outright) are targeting promotion this year and the league is seen as much a priority as championship. Pat Flanagan has very impressive record in the league with Offaly and Westmeath and this counts in their favour. They were very unlucky last season not to be promoted finishing level with Clare. Beat Longford on day 1 and they have a outside chance of promotion. Follow that up with wins v Antrim and Louth at home, they would have 6 points facing into an away clash with Armagh and then Tipp in Tullamore. They are probably too inconsistent to garner the magic 10/11 points needed but it is not beyond the realms of possibility. They are 4/1 to be promoted.

Longford (14/1 outright) another team unlucky to miss out on promotion last year face into as mentioned above a must win clash v Offaly Sunday. Their talisman Michael Quinn has been ruled out until March(at least 3 rounds) at the earliest and this is a massive blow to Denis Connerton's men. They have been boosted by the return of Sean and Padraig Mccormack this year and must be respected after their shock win v Monaghan in last year's championship but I believe they are not good enough to be promoted and too good to be relegated.

Sligo (16/1 outright) are potential relegation contenders this year. Their first 2 games v Armagh (home) and Tipp (away) immediately put them on the back foot. They will play Louth in Drogheda on the final day of the league. I believe this game will decide relegation. I'm tipping Sligo (2/1) to go down.

Louth (16/1 outright), I'd be usually very dismissive of pre-season competitions but Louth's form in the O'Byrne Cup should be respected. They are not good enough to be promoted and as mentioned above their final game v Sligo will be decisive. They have both Sligo and Antrim at home, this should see them safe.

Antrim (25/1 outright) are the favourites to be relegated (1/3) and they look to be the weakest team in the division.  They will target Sligo in round 3, Louth in round 5 and Longford in Belfast in round 7 as their key games, I can't see them escaping the drop. 1/3 however doesn’t really reflect good value.

3 pts Armagh to be promoted 8/11

2 pts Sligo to be relegated 2/1
  
(All prices supplied by Paddy Power)

Division 4 Preview - 'Banty's Yellowbellys to gain promotion'

We concentrate our first preview of the Allianz Football League on Division 4. While nearly all of the media’s attention will focus on the battles taking place in the top two divisions, here at The Bear in the Square we feel there is plenty to get excited about in the lower divisions from a punting point of view.

Before we get into the nitty gritty of the Outright & To be Promoted markets, it is important to look back on previous campaigns as a guide. Teams will need to aim to accumulate 11pts or more if they are be to consider promotion. Only one team has gained promotion on fewer points  and that was Offaly back in 2013 with 10.

Westmeath have been installed as favourites at 11/10 in the Outright Betting market. Only as far back as 2014, they were battling it out with all the big boys in Division 1 but three consecutive relegations has left them marooned in Division 4. On the contrast, their championship form has been excellent with back to back Leinster final appearances, and their only championship defeats in 2016 came against Dublin & Mayo, who both went on to contest the All Ireland. They can call on the likes of  John Heslin, Kieran Martin, James Dolan, Ger Egan & Paul Sharry to aid their promotion push. However, they have lost Ray Connellan to AFL side St Kilda and they have had trouble finding a reliable goalkeeper since former All Star Gary Connaughton retired. While we think they should get promoted, 2/5 is just too short. They will have to travel to both Limerick & Wexford, and it is these games which will decide the outcome of the league. They are best observed for now.

Next up are 5/2 chance Wexford. The managerial appointment of Seamus ‘Banty’ McEnaney was met with some fanfare in the Model County and they will be hoping that he can pull everyone together in an effort to achieve promotion. They were very unlucky last year not to gain promotion, finishing on 10pts. They lost only to Louth & Antrim who both gained promotion to Division 3. They seem to be emitting the right signals from the camp and team captain Brian Malone has said “We need to get promotion from Division 4. We missed out last year and we'll be going all out because it does make a difference, there's a big gap between Division 4 and 3 so we'll be hoping to get up there and get high-quality games." They have added former Donegal U21 player Peter Divine to the panel & John Leacy has also committed to the cause. While some players like Lee Chin are focused on Hurling for the time being, I feel there is still enough about Wexford under Banty  to gain promotion. They host Limerick on Matchday One and also will welcome Westmeath to Innovate Wexford Park later in the campaign. For this reason we are happy to take Wexford to be promoted at 4/5 and have a small nibble at them winning Division 4 at 5/2.

Up next in the market is Limerick at 7/2, who found themselves relegated from Division 3 in 2016. They finished bottom of the division, collecting only one point and having a score difference of -35pts. Bringing Kerry to extra time in the McGrath Cup final shows that they seem to be turning the corner. Wins against Clare and Waterford en route to the final will have boosted the confidence in the squad. They are without Ian Ryan and Seanie Buckley for the start of the league which could well be crucial as they face fellow promotion contenders Wexford on Matchday One. You can back them at 11/10 to gain promotion to Division 3, but with back to back fixtures against Wexford and Westmeath, we fear their challenge could be over before it starts.

It is hard argue a case for any of the remaining teams at gaining promotion. Carlow (14/1) will prove to be a tough nut to crack and do have Brendan Murphy in their ranks. Leitrim (16/1) welcome back Emlyn Mulligan for the 2017 campaign after he opted out last year. Nobody, apart from travelling fans enjoying the nightlife, will look forward to travelling to Carrick On Shannon. Waterford (18/1) have improved greatly in recent seasons and will be looking at taking a few scalps along the way. The same can be said for Wicklow (16/1) up in fortress Aughrim, who are again under the guidance of Johnny Magee. London (150/1) haven’t been as competitive since they reached the Connaught Final in 2014 and will need to improve considerably to be competitive here.

Recommendations


5pts Wexford To Be Promoted 4/5