Roscommon to Cover the Spread

It's Saturday Night Lights once again in Castlebar this weekend with Roscommon, the visitors to Elverys McHale Park. It has been a mixed week for Mayo, with the high of seeing Westport win an Intermediate All Ireland in HQ having been somewhat dampened with the news that Kevin Keane damaged his cruciate and is now out for the season. Here at Bear HQ we wish him all the best in his recovery.

Roscommon +5 at 11/10 (Ladbrokes) 

Ok so onto Saturday Nights game. The Ross will be bitterly disappointed not to have picked up some points against Donegal in the last round of matches. Deep into stoppage time, with the game level, they managed to work a one on one with the Donegal keeper. The half back in question had a split second decision to make, and decided to put his foot through the ball and go for goal. Unfortunately, the keeper pulled off a brilliant save and Donegal drove up the pitch and Eoin McHugh kicked a glorious point to snatch the win. Maybe the right thing to do was fist the ball over the bar, but we admire the balls in taking the chance at winning the game. Their willingness to go for goal makes them a dangerous team.

Mayo on the other hand arrive at this juncture after turning in a really strong 2nd half performance in Tralee against Kerry. No word of a lie, Mayo could have conceded 5 goals in the first half and were very fortunate to only go in 3pts adrift. Kerry were rampant but for the injuries of Paul Geaney and Killian Young their lead would have been much greater. To their credit, Mayo made some positional changes and their greater experience came to the fore as they ground out a 2pt win. Andy Moran was excellent and destroyed Mark Griffin, but surely you have to mark him from the front and not allow him to get that primary possession? He will more than likely be picked up by his old St Nathy's College teammate Seanie McDermott, and what a fascinating battle that will be.

Diarmuid Murtagh started for his club at the weekend and will likely make the bench for this trip. He is a top quality player and throw him in beside his brother Ciaran, Enda Smith, Conor Devaney and Fintan Cregg and you have a highly skilled forward line. They have scored 3 goals in total so far to zero Mayo goals and we expect them to cause the Mayo backs a lot of trouble on Saturday. Tom Parsons is suspended, while question marks remain over Danny Kirby at intercounty level. We don't know if either of the O'Shea's will play but their lack of game time may hinder them. We doubt Lee Keegan will feature from the start after Westport's heroics on Sunday.

Roscommon might not win this but they have a knack of scoring goals and weather permitting we can expect a good open game of football which will help their cause. Both teams have had two weeks to prepare for this game and Roscommon will have been pinpointing this fixture as a possible win from the start. If they can get off to a good start and get Kevin Higgins winning ball around the middle then we fully expect them to take the game to Mayo. It's sure to be an exciting encounter in from of a huge crowd at Castlebar. Take the +5pts on Roscommon, we see this is much closer than expected. The handicap only 12 months ago was +1 in a game Mayo ended up winning by 3pts. Hopefully the Rossies will arrive in style, on their team bus and bring a performance to please their travelling support!! 

We recommend a 3pt bet on Roscommon + 5 at 11/10 with Ladbrokes.

All Ireland Club Football Intermediate and Junior Finals - More Final Heartbreak for Mayo?

All Ireland Junior Club Final 

Glenbeigh/Gelncar vs Rock

We kick off this preview by focusing on the Junior final taking place this Sunday at 14:00. Neighbours may be defined by distance, but no distance can keep rivals apart, especially when it comes to Kerry & Tyrone!

Kerry champions Glenbeigh/Glencar arrive at this juncture having scored 4 goals in a high quality performance in the semi final against Louisburgh of Mayo. Kerry clubs have the title on five occasions since this competitions inauguration back in 2004. In their ranks they have the gifted Darren O Sullivan, the Kerry senior who has four All Ireland medals in his back pocket and also up and coming star Caolim Teaham, who was a minor winner with Kerry in 2013. 

The Rock from Tyrone defeated Scottish champs Dunedin Connolly's in the semi final, and they will be hoping its third time lucky having come out the wrong side of the 2008 final & 2015 semi final. Retired Tyrone great Ciaran Gourley is their talisman and they will be looking to tap into his experience to get them over the line on Sunday. 

We expect Glenbeigh/Glencar to come out on top in this, they play division 1 league football which is an amazing feet for a Junior Club and should have enough class to win this. At 1/4 they don't offer much value so are best just watched. 

All Ireland Intermediate Club Final

Westport vs St Colmcilles 

Just like the senior team, Mayo Club teams have a truly abysmal record in Club finals. Since Ballina won the senior final in 04/05, Mayo club teams have participated in 8 finals across Junior, Intermediate & Senior and have lost each one. Westport will be hoping to buck that trend on Sunday and will need a big performance from current footballer of the year Lee Keegan in they are to break this hoodoo. They were 5/1 outsiders in their semi final against Kenmare but managed to shock everyone by winning a tight battle in extra time. 

St Colmcilles are aiming to become the first Meath team to win the Intermediate final. The Meath champions overcame Pomeroy of Tyrone in the semi final by a single point, but will be frustrated that they let a 7 point lead slip away at one stage. Meath sharp shooter Graham Reilly is their star player and his possible matchup with Lee Keegan could be worth the admission fee alone. 

Westport are favourites in the this one but we fancy the Meath side to make this a right old battle. The Mayo side may struggle to get scores and if Reilly can get his forward unit motoring, we are happy to take St Colmcilles on the handicap. We suggest a 2pt stake on St Colmcilles +2pts at even money

All Ireland Club Junior and Intermediate Hurling Finals - Too Close to Call

All Ireland Junior Hurling Final - Mooncoin v Mayfield. Throw-in 3.00pm

Since the inception of this championship in 2003, Kilkenny and Cork clubs have won this title 11 times from 13. Kilkenny clubs have won 4 of the last 5 renewals whilst Mayfield are aiming to bring this title home to Cork for the first time since 2011. Mooncoin go into this final after fairly comfortable Leinster Campaign and a facile All Ireland Semi Final win. In fact, their lowest winning margin since their own county semi final has been 7 points. Their successful campaign has been aided by an excellent defensive record(average point concession since and including county semi final has been 7.6 points and goals conceded a rarity also).

In opposition are the Cork Champions Mayfield. Unlucky not to have come out of Cork in recent years, they are aiming emulate the last club from Cork (Meelin in 2011) and bring home this cup. The impressive features to note from their campaign was their ability to put up big scores averaging 2-21 a game since their own County quarter final. Nicky Kelly and David O'Neill in particular have impressed. The bookies cannot separate these 2 sides in the betting. Both are Evens and the draw is 8/1. Maybe have a nibble at the draw!!

All Ireland Intermediate Hurling Final - Carrickshock v. Ahascragh-Fohenagh. 4.45

Like the Junior title, this competition has been dominated by Kilkenny clubs in recent years winning 3 of the last 4 titles. Carrickshock also have been here before, beaten in the first final in 2005. The Shocks backboned by a mountain of inter county and All Ireland winning experience come here as slight 5/6 favourites. Any team with John Dalton, John Tennyson, Michael Rice, John Power and Richie Power are a daunting opposition at Senior let alone intermediate. Despite this, they arrive at this juncture having rode their luck quite often during this campaign, in particular in their county semi win over Tullaroan and in the Leinster final where they made a miraculous recovery scoring 3 goals in the final 6 minutes.

In opposition are the Galway Champions Ahascragh-Fohenagh. No Galway side has ever won this title, losing on 4 occasions. They defeated a hotly tipped Lismore of Waterford in the semi-final, but quite like their opposition, they rode their luck in the Connacht Final, beating Ballyhaunis only after a replay. They possess in their ranks the Mannion brothers, Cathal and Padraig, who have been in inspirational form throughout this campaign. One worry for A/F is their slight over dependence on Cathal Mannion for scores. I have changed my mind on 3 occasions already on my prediction for this game, I'll go for the Galway Champions(5/6)

Division 1 Hurling: Galway to Make a Quick Return

The league in recent times has become so unpredictable that betting on it represents a massive risk. There are no markets on relegation which limits our options also. However, here at Bear in the Square, we have tried this decipher this and give our humble opinions on where the value may lie.

Recommendations:

Galway to be promoted 2 pts @ 4/5

Kilkenny (5/2 Outright) The 17-time league champions face into this year's campaign with the unusual situation of having major doubts hanging over them. They signalled their intent in the Walsh cup playing with strong sides, Cody has been experimenting with certain positions to find the right formula. Last years All Ireland final displayed weaknesses in their full back line and how they sort out these issues will define their season. They still possess in their armour, 2 of the best forwards in Ireland, TJ Reid and Richie Hogan. The return of James Maher and Ger Alyward from injury will further boost their attacking options. According to reports, Michael Fennelly will miss the league and this is a massive loss. Since 2000, Kilkenny have been unsuccessful in their quest for Liam McCarthy only 5 years. In those years following these unsuccessful attempts, Kilkenny have won 4 out of 5 leagues and the other a loss in the final. Write them off at your peril!

Tipperary (11/4 Outright). The All Ireland Champions 2016, their performance last September was so impressive that people are talking about years of Tipp dominance. But alas, we have been here before (2010) and things turned out differently. They open their league campaign against Dublin Saturday night, we would expect a Tipp victory here. Question marks remain over how serious they will take the league. They will experiment with different players and look at other options in the half forward line (Bonner Maher missing the early rounds). They have only won the league twice in the last 16 years. Maybe steer clear until we see team selections for the early rounds.

Waterford (9/2 Outright). The best team in the last 2 years in league. Runners Up in 2016, winners in 2015, they have used the league to build a system of play and allow the players within it to evolve. Their defensive style they have worked on so much was abandoned to a certain extent in last year’s AI Semi Final. How do they plan to approach the league this year will be interesting? They will use it to bed in some of last year’s successful Under 21s and how much tinkering is done will determine their success in this year’s campaign. There is growing sense of optimism in Waterford that an elusive All Ireland is not far away; the league may take a back seat.

Clare (8/1 Outright) The 2016 League Champions face into a new campaign without the presence of Davy Fitzgerald since 2011. Under the new management team of Donal Moloney and Gerry O’Connor, hopes are high. Last year’s joint captain Cian Dillon made some insightful comments at the league launch last week re their approach to tactics this year.  “We're looking to hurl off the cuff really, express ourselves, play with that freedom and do what's natural”. One criticism of Davy Fitzgerald’s reign was their dependence on a system focused primarily on their use of a sweeper, this indicates a move away from this policy. A possible problem for Clare in this years league campaign is the unavailability of the Ballyea contingent (Tony Kelly, Jack Browne, Paul Flanagan etc.) plus the large numbers of their players involved in Fitzgibbon hurling will not help.

Cork (16/1 Outright). A terrible 2016 with only 2 positives, a win in their relegation play off v Galway and a lucky win v a Dublin team with 14 men for 2nd half in championship. We believe that it will be between Cork and Dublin for the drop to 1B, we'll side with Cork to just shade this.

Dublin (33/1 Outright) have reached crossroads under the stewardship of Ger Cunningham. Rumblings of discontent have been rumoured throughout the winter with former players Michael Carton and Conal Keaney going public with his concerns. Many of last year’s U21 Leinster winning team will be given the chance to fill the void left by the departure of many experienced heads. No Niall Corcoran, Johnny McCaffrey, Peter Kelly, Paul Ryan, Danny Sutcliffe, Joey Boland, Shane Durkan, Conal Keaney leaves a massive experience deficit, they will struggle.

Division 1B: The Promotion Battle

In terms of picking a winner of the league this year, it is important to note that the last 2 champions both came from Division 1B. We believe that Galway (11/2 outright win Division 1)) are best placed for this. The major issue for the Tribesman over the past few seasons has been consistency in league and championship. They should have beaten Tipperary in last years All Ireland semi-final, but were very poor in Leinster Final (2^nd half) against Kilkenny. We think Galway need to string a number of good performances together to build that winning mentality and consistency that has halted their quest for Liam in recent times. The league is the place to do that, we expect them to achieve promotion to 1A, also would not rule out their presence in the final in April. They are 4/5 to be promoted.

Limerick (9/1 to win Division 1) have been languishing in Division 1B since its inception in 2012, finishing 2^nd all of these years. Under new manager John Kiely, there will be a massive emphasis put on league promotion to 1A. The crucial game for Limericks promotion is in our opinion this Sunday in Wexford. Win that, and that will set up a clash with Galway which will decide promotion. This Sundays game against Wexford is in my opinion one of the games of the weekend. Davy Fitz first real competitive game over the yellowbellies should see a feisty close affair. Limerick are missing Shane Dowling, Kevin Downes, Gavin O’Mahony and Tom Condon for this clash, they might struggle down there and anything other than a win would dash their promotion hopes. They are 6/4 to be promoted, I would steer clear.

As mentioned above Wexford (25/1 to win Division 1 outright) are hosting Limerick this weekend in Wexford Park. Wexford chairman Diarmuid Devereux has stated the primary aim of Fitzgerald’s reign is promotion to 1A. We believe that Wexford have an excellent chance against Limerick this weekend. This is dependent on their injury situation. Liam Og McGovern, Andrew Shore and Shane Tomkins will be absent for the league but there are doubts over the availability of Conor McDonald and Jack Guiney for this weekend’s clash. If they are available we believe Wexford will win, if they are not, we will enjoy the clash from an non betting point of view. They are 5/1 to be promoted, a nice price but they have to travel to Salthill on the 19^th February. This may be a step too far for them.

Offaly, Laois and Kerry make up the rest of 1B. We would rule out any of these teams making a promotion push but they can influence what happens above them. Offaly have beaten Limerick and Wexford in recent seasons and are capable of a once off result like that. Under new manager Kevin Ryan, they will want to make their mark in the league and become a more consistent outfit. Last season Offaly beat a Wexford side by 8 points in Wexford park in an outstanding performance. One week later, they fell flat on their face getting beaten by Kerry in Birr. Watch out for the Laois Offaly clash on the 18^th February, this game will have a major influence on who makes up the relegation playoff on the 1^st April.

All Ireland Club Football: Gooch & Dr. Crokes to Prevail

This Saturday sees two mouthwatering clashes in the semi finals of the AIB All Ireland Club Championship. First up at 14:00 is the clash of St Vincent's (Dublin) vs Slaughtneil (Derry) followed by Corofin (Galway) vs Dr Crokes (Kerry) at 16:00. All four teams have an abundance of county players at their disposal and all boast experience of mixing it with the best in the latter stages of previous campaigns. 

Recommendations:

Dr Crokes to beat Corofin at 7/4 - 1.5pt

Corofin head the Outright market at 6/4 (Ladbrokes) and have won this competition as recently as 2015 where they defeated Slaughtneil in the final. That season will be remembered by how they overcame St Vincent's in an epic semi final clash by four points. That year everything went right  and their stock seems to be on the rise again, having defeated last years beaten finalists Castlebar Mitchell's in this years Connaught Semi Final clash. This was a momentous victory, not only for the fact the game was played in Castlebar, but it also allowed them to gain revenge for last years loss to the same team. Gary Sice, Ian Burke, Daithi Burke and 2001 All Ireland winner with Galway, Kieran Fitzgerald are their stand out players.

St Vincent's are next in the market at 9/4 (Paddypower) and have in their ranks the gifted but temperamental Diarmuid Connolly. What he can do with a football is astonishing and Vincent's will need him in full flow if they are to be collecting the Andy Merrigan Cup on St Patrick's Day. They won this competition back back in 2014 so experience won't be an issue. Old stalwart Mossie Quinn will be crucial to their chances along with Ger Brennan, Eamon Fennel and New York born Shane Carty. 

Dr Crokes of Kerry can be backed at 10/3 (Paddypower) and will look to Colm Cooper to guide them. Surprisingly Crokes have never won a Club All Ireland and their hunger to win will sure to be a big factor for them. They reached the semi final back in 2014 only to come up short against Castlebar, with the game most likely remembered for the Gooch doing his cruciate. Kerry seniors Johnny Buckley, Fionn Fitzgerald and Kieran O'Leary will be supporting acts to playmaker Cooper. 

Wonder Club Slaughtneil are available at a general 6/1 in the outright market. It is simply incredible what this club has achieved in 2016/2017 and everyone associated with them deserves a huge amount of credit. In 2015 they played Corofin in the final but never really got going. I'm sure their game plan will have developed since then and they will look to keep things tight and hit teams on the break. Chrissy McKaigue is their leader and I'm sure all the locals will cherish these next few weeks as they battle it out to win both the hurling and football club All Ireland's .

So this brings me to this weekends games. We have one selection for Saturday's games and that's Dr Crokes to beat Corofin. Yep you read that right, we are going with the Kerry champs! Let me explain. Corofin are by far the best team in Galway and never get tested until they enter the Connaught championship. Their game against Castlebar went to extra time and they won eventually but it so easily could have went either way. In the Connaught final they played St Bridget's who never should have gotten that far, an old team that had boxed in one round too many. We just question what sort of form Corofin will be in and if they have it in them to rise to this challenge. On the other hand, Crokes are coming into this completely under the radar. Cooper will be desperate to add a Club medal to his illustrious collection. Fionn Fitzgerald can do a job on Ian Burke, Buckley matches up well to Daithi Burke while Kieran O'Leary should relish facing veteran Kieran Fitzgerald. Everything will need to go right for Dr Crokes and a fast start would certainly. They showed in the Munster final what they can do, by smashing in three goals before the 15min mark. Anything like that on Saturday and we would be laughing!!  We like their chances to cause a shock and are happy to have a 1.5pt stake at 7/4 (Boylesports) to win against Corofin

Kerry to Open Their Account with a Win

Following on from our anti post picks for the national football league, we now focus our attention on the round 1 fixtures.

Our first selection looks at the Saturday night game between Down and Fermanagh in Division 2. Games between two Ulster teams tend to be tight physical battles and we expect something similar later tonight. Looking back on the stats from the 2016 league both teams only managed to hit the onion bag twice while it is expected that both teams will be looking to keep things tight at the other end. Under 1.5 goals is 10/11 with Paddy Power and we believe this will result in little goal mouth action. We will have a 1.5pts bet on that.

Our main selection for the weekend is Kerry to beat Donegal at 8/11. They were a general 10/11 shot this time yesterday but with the news of Donegal giving debuts to five players that price was smashed and are now 4/6 in places. Kerry have named as strong a side as possible for this game and will be hoping that 2014 Footballer of the Year James O'Donoghue can recapture the form that made him unplayable that summer. David Moran will be a key player in midfield as he will look to dominate the inexperienced Donegal duo. Michael Murphy's recent trip to France to train with Clermont will have hampered his pre season training and he may be needed around the middle of the park if Kerry get on top early. What we don't want is a repeat of last years game where Kerry were reduced to 14 men in a game which threatened to spill over on occasion. If Kerry can keep their focus on the football they  have an excellent chance to open their account with an away win. We are all over Kerry to win with a 5pt stake at 8/11. 

Don't forget to check out our previews of all four Football League divisions and also our take on the Club Hurling Championship.

All Ireland Club Hurling - History beckons for Cuala

The All Ireland club hurling championshipresumes this Saturday evening after a break of two months. How teams cope with this long layoff is key to their preparations and this should be considered in advance of any wagers.

We start with Cuala (5/6), attempting to go where no Dublin hurling club has gone before and reach a All Ireland Club final. Deservedly favourites for the title, they have kicked on from Dublin Championship and the addition of C O Callaghan has brought the Dalkey club to a new level. They have been showing excellent form in challenge games against inter county teams and have a top class forward line. The full forward line of Treacy, O Callaghan and Schutte would be hard for any inter county team to handle, let alone a club team. The Dublin champs should see off Slaughtneil in late February. I expect their forwards to open up in the wide expansions of Croke Park. Take the 5/6!!

Ballyea (3/1) backboned by one of the Bear in the Square's favourite hurlers Tony Kelly, face St Thomas's of Galway this Saturday evening. We believe that this game has the makings of a thriller. Ballyea's surprise win against Thurles Sarsfields in the Munster Semi-final was as exciting a game as we saw in 2016 and what was notable about that win was their inability to give up. In the Munster final, they could potentially have won by more than 8 points such was the impressive nature of their display. Their movement and pace seemed to thrive on the hallowed turf of Semple Stadium and this venue should be a massive plus for them on Saturday. They also possess some physical players like Gary Brennan and Damien Burke which will allow them to mix it should it be required. Watch out too for Gearoid O'Connell too at wing back, gave an outstanding display in the Munster Final with 3 long distance scores.

In opposition to Ballyea Saturday evening are St Thomas's (5/2) of Galway. The All Ireland club champions of 2013 have the benefit of that experience which some of their opposition will lack. Their county players David Burke and Conor Cooney play a major role for them. Burke (who has won 3 All Stars)  will be in direct opposition to Kelly (1 all star, 2013 Hurler of the year and Young Hurler of the year) and this will be worth the entrance fee alone. How Thomas's choose to curb the influence of Kelly will have a massive bearing on this game. We believe it is possibly too close to call and may even have a small bet on the draw @ 17/2 with Boyles.

Our favourite club story of 2016 was Slaughtneil (25/1). What they have achieved is the envy of clubs across the land.  It just shows what can be achieved. It must be remembered they are a community with approximately 300 families. While we will not rule them out of contention for the Club football AI, we believe that success in this competition is a step too far. We fear for them against Cuala. Tthey just will not have it in their capabilities to cope with their forwards.

Cuala 3pts @ 5/6 to win All Ireland (Paddy Power)

Draw 1pt @ 17/2 between St Thomas and Ballyea (Boylesports)

Tough time for Donegal and Cavan - Division 1 Preview

It is important to remember that this year there are no league semi-finals, so teams need to be ready to go from the off in they are still to be playing league football come April 9^th. In order to reach the final, the magic number of points reached needs to be 9. Since 2013 the minimum points total for a team finishing second was 9, while generally 10 or 11pts will have you sitting pretty at the top. (The exception being the Dubs last year finishing with 14pts)

Our Selections;

Tyrone to reach the final –          1pt @ 6/4

Donegal to be relegated –           1.5pts @ 7/4 (Ladbrokes)

Cavan to be relegated -                2.5pts @ 8/11

The 4 Time Champs

No better place to start our preview than looking at the Dubs. The back to back All Ireland Champs are entering the 2017 Allianz League campaign chasing an unprecedented 5^th Division 1 title in a row. You can get them at 5/4 on the Outright Market and a general 6/4 to finish top, something which they have done twice since 2013. Looking at their fixtures, they face Tyrone, Mayo and Roscommon at HQ while the Hill 16 travelling army are on the road for the other four games, travelling to Cavan, Donegal, Kerry & Monaghan. Considering they have four games on the road, along with not having the club tied Vincent’s, you have to wonder can they do it again. I’m sure Jim Gavin will be looking to give upcoming players opportunities to showcase their talents, especially in midfield where they need to find a settled partner for the excellent Brian Fenton.  With every team in the division chomping at the bit to take them down, at the prices quoted we do not see much value in backing them for the 5 in row.

The Pretenders

Second in the Outright market are Kerry, who reached the final last year only to be hammered by the dubs. While they lost Marc O’Shea & Aidan O’Mahony to retirement over the winter, the kingdom will be buoyed by the news that the old dog Kieran Donaghy is going to slog it out for another year. They have used the McGrath Cup to test out some of their successful minor teams and are looking to build a panel for the championship. They are 7/2 in the Outright betting and 11/4 to finish top. Interestingly they will play Mayo, Dublin & Tyrone in Killarney which must give them a chance of getting into the top two. Obviously it could prove foolish to write both Kerry and Dublin off, but we feel there are better value options available. Kerry will be focusing on September and that should be taken into account if you have throwing a few quid on them.

Mayo & Tyrone are next in the Outright Market, both priced at 9/2. It is difficult to decipher the Mayo puzzle, continually coming so close to winning Sam only to find new ways to lose it each time. A team holiday in South Africa will have been a welcome distraction for the players over the winter, returning less than two weeks ago it does leave some of their star players lacking some match practice. It will be Saturday Night Lights this year for Mayo as their first four games all down for a 19:00 throw in. They traditionally start slow in the league and with uncertainty about what way Mayo will approach this league campaign, they are best avoided.

On the other hand, Tyrone will be looking to compete again on their return to Division 1. They did suffer a blow with the loss of star shooter Conor McAliskey and questions still remain if they have a reliable free taker. They should relish visits to HQ and Killarney and can be backed at 6/4 to finish in the top two. Micky Harte will feel that they left the game against Mayo behind them last summer, and there is no better manager to instil belief in a squad than Harte. Every Tyrone player will believe they have what it takes to go toe to toe with the best in the Division.

The Outsiders

Looking further down the league we have Donegal & Monaghan at 16/1 and both Roscommon & Cavan at 25s. It is difficult to make a case for any of these to win outright so our focus will be on “To Be Relegated” market.

We believe that we are beginning to see the end of the great Donegal team of the early part of this decade. In total they will be missing up to 9 players from last year’s panel. Eamon McGee, Christy Toye, David Walsh, Colm McFadden, & Rory Kavanagh have all retired, while Leo McLoone and Odhran MacNiallais have opted out for the year. Anthony Thompson is unable to commit to the start of the league campaign while big Neil Gallagher is out with a hip injury. Plenty will be expected of Paddy McBrearty this season and he will have to take more responsibility if they are to stay up. It is probably the loss of MacNiallais which will hit Donegal the hardest. A superbly gifted footballer, his running from midfield and ability to kick long rang scores will be missed. They are 7/4 to be relegated and we are happy to take a punt at this price.

Roscommon who shocked everyone last season in the league need to build on that campaign of last year. However, their championship form was atrocious which immediately puts Kevin Mcstay under pressure if they carry that form into this year’s league. They do have some good young players, but are still lacking a midfield partnership that can win primary possession when it is most needed. McStay is now the sole man in charge with Fergie O’Donnell stepping down after their championship exit. Playing their home games again at The Hyde will help their cause and we can see them collecting enough points to stay up.

Cavan are newly promoted and sure to find life difficult in Division 1. They parted ways with Terry Hyland over the Summer and will be looking to this campaign at a litmus test to see where they are placed amongst the elite teams. They do have some good young players from successful U21 teams and with Tyrone native Mattie McGleenan now in charge they are hoping to play a more expansive game. With four trips on the road they are a general 8/11 to be relegated and we fancy a bit of that!

Monaghan might take a few scalps along the way, we would fancy them to give Mayo a run for their money on Match day 1. Malachy O’Rourke has done a super job with his team but they do seem to be over reliant on Conor McManus for their scores. They have some tricky fixtures, but I would expect them to have enough quality to pick up enough points to continue their stay in the Division.

Division 2 Preview - The West Awakens?

A lot of experts have been saying that this year’s Division 2 is more competitive than other division, and it is hard not to agree with them.

All these teams are very closely matched, which makes it difficult from a punting point of view, but we have done our research and have two recommendations.  

1.       Galway to be promoted 2pts @ 5/4

2.       Meath to be promoted 1pt @ 2/1

Relegated From Division 1

We start our preview by firstly looking at the two teams relegated from Division 1. At the top of the ‘To Be Promoted’ market are Cork at 4/6. It’s hard to believe that they won only the one All Ireland back in 2010 when they had such a talented bunch of footballers. What they would give now to have the likes of Noel O’Leary, Graham Canty or Nicholas Murphy to guide them through this rough patch. It is these experienced players, that this Cork team are so badly missing. Having reached the All Ireland U21 final last year they will be looking to blood some of their talented youngsters. They could not have asked for a trickier opening two matches, playing away to Galway and Kildare. They will be going into battle for these games without the services of Eoin Cadogan, Jamie O’Sullivan, Alan O’Connor and the Hurley brothers, Brian & Michael, not to forget the retirements of Patrick Kelly, Daniel Goulding & Fintan Gould over the summer.  We feel 4/6 is just too short about a team that still has so many questions to answer.

Down suffered an absolute battering in Division 1 last year, losing all their league matches and suffering an extra time championship defeat against Longford. They should be familiar with many of these teams however, as they did top this division back in 2015 with 10pts, gaining wins against  Kildare & Galway. There has not been much optimism coming from the Down camp and their recent McKenna Cup campaign didn’t set the world alight. They are 7/4 to be relegated & 4/1 to bounce back to Division 1. You would have to fear for them.

Promoted from Division 3

2016 was an exceptional year for the Clare footballers. Beating Kildare in the Division 3 decider was a huge achievement and they proved it to be no fluke by successfully navigating their way through the qualifiers and reaching the All Ireland Quarter Final. Podge Collins has committed fully to the hurlers this season, while captain and inspirational leader Gary Brennan will be playing for Ballyhea this Saturday in the Club Hurling Semi Final. He is expected to make to 400km trip to Derry after the game on Saturday but it’s hard to know what condition he will be in to play. With only three home games and away trips to Derry, Galway, Fermanagh & Kildare it’s hard not to see any other eventuality that the Banner Men making a quick return to Division 3. At 8/15 to be relegated we feel this is a wee bit on the short side and are happy to look for a bit of value elsewhere.

Cian O’Neill’s Kildare team are the other team who gained promotion from Division 3 in 2016. A lot was expected from his appointment after he was so successful as a selector for both Mayo & Kerry. He has openly said that he will need three years to make Kildare competitive again and he will hope that the squad are more in tune this season to his style of play. We can expect Kildare to play more defensively this season, as they will look to keep games tight in an effort to stay competitive. They have been dealt a poor hand, with four away fixtures visiting Meath, Derry, Down & Galway and you would wonder can this young team rise to the challenge. The O’Byrne Cup loss to Dublin was a bitter blow considering they were 3pts up with only a few minutes left and a defeat like this leads to more questions than answers. They are 5/2 to be promoted & 11/4 to go straight back down, they might just stay up but it would be no surprise if they were to be relegated.

Division 2 Perennials 

Galway have been stuck in a moment since being relegated from Division 1 back in 2011. Since then they have won two U21 All Irelands so at this stage should have developed a strong panel. Last year’s Connaught champions surprised everyone in the way they collapsed against Tipp in the Quarter Final. Kevin Walsh will hope that this was just an off day and that they can put things right by gaining promotion. There is no longer murmurings of players being unavailable for selection, and once the Corofin contingent return Galway will be in a much better place. We like their chances this year and are happy to side with them to gain promotion at 5/4.

Meath have embraced Division 2 football since 2014 and have collected 9pts on two occasions while only escaping relegation on points difference last year with 6pts.  They have a new manager this season in Andy McEntee, who takes over from Mick O’Dowd. McEntee will be looking to add a hardiness and steal to this Meath squad, something which they were revered for in the 90’s. The fixture computer has been kind to the Royals with their opening two games at home against Kildare & Derry, while they also have Galway & Fermanagh at Pairc Tailteann. Absent for the opening rounds of the league will be Graham Reilly who will be lining out for St Colmcille’s in the Intermediate Club All Ireland Final. This is a great opportunity for Meath to gain promotion and we feel they are worth a small stake at 2/1 to go up.

The Chasing Pack

Ulster duo Fermanagh & Derry make up the chasing pack. Pete McGrath has transformed this Fermanagh team and having watching them first hand last year, there is a lot to like about them. Fellow Bear in the Square Sean Quigley is a real handful while Thomas Corrigan complements him perfectly. They have one of the best midfielders in the country in Eoin Donnelly who should prosper with the introduction of the ‘mark’ this season. While we don’t think they can win or gain promotion, they will be competitive and do not be surprised if they take a few scalps over the course of the league. They are 5/1 to go up and 6/4 to be relegated.

Damian Barton’s Derry side collected 6pts in this division last year and it was only a score difference of 8pts which kept them up. An opening day visit of Clare to the Celtic Park should give them the perfect opportunity to open their account with 2pts. Other key home games include the visits of Down & Fermanagh and you feel they have to pick up points in these games if they are to avoid the drop. With Slaughtneil preparing for an All-Ireland Club Semi-final, Derry are deprived of some key players at least for the opening rounds of the league. With prices of 3/1 to be promoted & 5/2 to be relegated, its hard be sure of what to expect from Derry and for that reason they are best avoided.