Much like Division 2, this division has been wide open over
the past few seasons (with the exception of Armagh's and Fermanagh's dominance
in 2015). Last year, Kildare as were promoted as expected. What surprised many
was Clare's emergence from the pack to eventually take the title in Croke Park
last April. 8 points was enough last year for Clare's promotion. We think 10
points is the magic total here.
Heading the outright market in this league are Tipperary
(2/1) after a ground breaking 2016. First, the positives: the return of a
number of players who left the panel prior to championship 2016, a growing pool
of young talent and Clonmel Commercials players available without club distractions
for the league this year. They should have 4 points in the bag (against Antrim
and Sligo at home) by round 3 where they face into a crucial game in the race
for promotion v Laois in Portlaoise. This game will have a hugel bearing on the
promotion. We have doubts regarding their ability to replace the departed Peter
Acheson in midfield. We're not sure whether they have the players there to
replace him. The obvious players who come to mind unfortunately for Tipp are
Steven O Brien(hurling) and Colin O Riordan.
The fixtures are in their favour though and 4/6 to be promoted might be
tempting.
Armagh (9/4 Outright) are my choice for this league.
Relegated last season with 6 points, they were
desperately unlucky not to stay up. Championship form has been patchy,
but this Armagh team should be good enough to put teams away in this division. A
decent fixture list with Tipp and Laois both having to visit the Athletic
Grounds and the return of Jamie Clarke is the icing on the cake as far as we're
concerned. I'll take 9/4 to win it outright. 8/11 to be promoted is also good
value for those more risk adverse.
Laois(11/4 outright) under new manager Peter Creedon are the
biggest threat to the two favourites. Indications in the camp are positive and
the manager has bedded in quite well. Their fixture list is tricky with 4 games
away. Their 1st 3 games are Louth at home, Armagh away and then Tipp at home. 4
points from 6 there will put them in a great position for promotion. Evens to
be promoted is probably a tad short for a team as inconsistent as Laois, it
still should be considered. The loss of John O Loughlin, Brendan Quigley and
Evan O Carroll in the early rounds makes their task a little bit more
difficult.
Round 1 will decide Offaly and Longford's ambitions in this
year's league. Offaly (10/1 outright) are targeting promotion this year and the
league is seen as much a priority as championship. Pat Flanagan has very
impressive record in the league with Offaly and Westmeath and this counts in
their favour. They were very unlucky last season not to be promoted finishing
level with Clare. Beat Longford on day 1 and they have a outside chance of
promotion. Follow that up with wins v Antrim and Louth at home, they would have
6 points facing into an away clash with Armagh and then Tipp in Tullamore. They
are probably too inconsistent to garner the magic 10/11 points needed but it is
not beyond the realms of possibility. They are 4/1 to be promoted.
Longford (14/1 outright) another team unlucky to miss out on
promotion last year face into as mentioned above a must win clash v Offaly
Sunday. Their talisman Michael Quinn has been ruled out until March(at least 3
rounds) at the earliest and this is a massive blow to Denis Connerton's men.
They have been boosted by the return of Sean and Padraig Mccormack this year and
must be respected after their shock win v Monaghan in last year's championship
but I believe they are not good enough to be promoted and too good to be
relegated.
Sligo (16/1 outright) are potential relegation contenders
this year. Their first 2 games v Armagh (home) and Tipp (away) immediately put
them on the back foot. They will play Louth in Drogheda on the final day of the
league. I believe this game will decide relegation. I'm tipping Sligo (2/1) to
go down.
Louth (16/1 outright), I'd be usually very dismissive of
pre-season competitions but Louth's form in the O'Byrne Cup should be
respected. They are not good enough to be promoted and as mentioned above their
final game v Sligo will be decisive. They have both Sligo and Antrim at home,
this should see them safe.
Antrim (25/1 outright) are the favourites to be relegated (1/3)
and they look to be the weakest team in the division. They will target Sligo in round 3, Louth in
round 5 and Longford in Belfast in round 7 as their key games, I can't see them
escaping the drop. 1/3 however doesn’t really reflect good value.
3 pts
Armagh to be promoted 8/11
2 pts
Sligo to be relegated 2/1
(All prices supplied
by Paddy Power)
