We
concentrate our first preview of the Allianz Football League on Division 4.
While nearly all of the media’s attention will focus on the battles taking
place in the top two divisions, here at The Bear in the Square we feel there is
plenty to get excited about in the lower divisions from a punting point of
view.
Before
we get into the nitty gritty of the Outright & To be Promoted markets, it
is important to look back on previous campaigns as a guide. Teams will need to
aim to accumulate 11pts or more if they are be to consider promotion. Only one
team has gained promotion on fewer points and that was Offaly back in
2013 with 10.
Westmeath
have been installed as favourites at 11/10 in the Outright Betting market. Only
as far back as 2014, they were battling it out with all the big boys in
Division 1 but three consecutive relegations has left them marooned in Division
4. On the contrast, their championship form has been excellent with back to
back Leinster final appearances, and their only championship defeats in 2016
came against Dublin & Mayo, who both went on to contest the All Ireland.
They can call on the likes of John Heslin, Kieran Martin, James Dolan,
Ger Egan & Paul Sharry to aid their promotion push. However, they have lost
Ray Connellan to AFL side St Kilda and they have had trouble finding a reliable
goalkeeper since former All Star Gary Connaughton retired. While we think they
should get promoted, 2/5 is just too short. They will have to travel to both
Limerick & Wexford, and it is these games which will decide the outcome of
the league. They are best observed for now.
Next
up are 5/2 chance Wexford. The managerial appointment of Seamus ‘Banty’
McEnaney was met with some fanfare in the Model County and they will be hoping
that he can pull everyone together in an effort to achieve promotion. They were
very unlucky last year not to gain promotion, finishing on 10pts. They lost
only to Louth & Antrim who both gained promotion to Division 3. They seem
to be emitting the right signals from the camp and team captain Brian Malone
has said “We need to get promotion from Division 4. We missed out last year and
we'll be going all out because it does make a difference, there's a big gap between
Division 4 and 3 so we'll be hoping to get up there and get high-quality
games." They have added former Donegal U21 player Peter Divine to the
panel & John Leacy has also committed to the cause. While some players like
Lee Chin are focused on Hurling for the time being, I feel there is still
enough about Wexford under Banty to gain promotion. They host Limerick on
Matchday One and also will welcome Westmeath to Innovate Wexford Park later in
the campaign. For this reason we are happy to take Wexford to be promoted at 4/5 and
have a small nibble at them winning Division 4 at 5/2.
Up
next in the market is Limerick at 7/2, who found themselves relegated from
Division 3 in 2016. They finished bottom of the division, collecting only one
point and having a score difference of -35pts. Bringing Kerry to extra time in
the McGrath Cup final shows that they seem to be turning the corner. Wins
against Clare and Waterford en route to the final will have boosted the
confidence in the squad. They are without Ian Ryan and Seanie Buckley for the
start of the league which could well be crucial as they face fellow promotion
contenders Wexford on Matchday One. You can back them at 11/10 to gain promotion
to Division 3, but with back to back fixtures against Wexford and Westmeath, we
fear their challenge could be over before it starts.
It is
hard argue a case for any of the remaining teams at gaining promotion. Carlow
(14/1) will prove to be a tough nut to crack and do have Brendan Murphy in
their ranks. Leitrim (16/1) welcome back Emlyn Mulligan for the 2017 campaign
after he opted out last year. Nobody, apart from travelling fans enjoying the
nightlife, will look forward to travelling to Carrick On Shannon. Waterford
(18/1) have improved greatly in recent seasons and will be looking at taking a
few scalps along the way. The same can be said for Wicklow (16/1) up in
fortress Aughrim, who are again under the guidance of Johnny Magee. London
(150/1) haven’t been as competitive since they reached the Connaught Final in
2014 and will need to improve considerably to be competitive here.
Recommendations
5pts
Wexford To Be Promoted 4/5
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