Division 1 Hurling: Galway to Make a Quick Return

The league in recent times has become so unpredictable that betting on it represents a massive risk. There are no markets on relegation which limits our options also. However, here at Bear in the Square, we have tried this decipher this and give our humble opinions on where the value may lie.

Recommendations:

Galway to be promoted 2 pts @ 4/5

Kilkenny (5/2 Outright) The 17-time league champions face into this year's campaign with the unusual situation of having major doubts hanging over them. They signalled their intent in the Walsh cup playing with strong sides, Cody has been experimenting with certain positions to find the right formula. Last years All Ireland final displayed weaknesses in their full back line and how they sort out these issues will define their season. They still possess in their armour, 2 of the best forwards in Ireland, TJ Reid and Richie Hogan. The return of James Maher and Ger Alyward from injury will further boost their attacking options. According to reports, Michael Fennelly will miss the league and this is a massive loss. Since 2000, Kilkenny have been unsuccessful in their quest for Liam McCarthy only 5 years. In those years following these unsuccessful attempts, Kilkenny have won 4 out of 5 leagues and the other a loss in the final. Write them off at your peril!

Tipperary (11/4 Outright). The All Ireland Champions 2016, their performance last September was so impressive that people are talking about years of Tipp dominance. But alas, we have been here before (2010) and things turned out differently. They open their league campaign against Dublin Saturday night, we would expect a Tipp victory here. Question marks remain over how serious they will take the league. They will experiment with different players and look at other options in the half forward line (Bonner Maher missing the early rounds). They have only won the league twice in the last 16 years. Maybe steer clear until we see team selections for the early rounds.

Waterford (9/2 Outright). The best team in the last 2 years in league. Runners Up in 2016, winners in 2015, they have used the league to build a system of play and allow the players within it to evolve. Their defensive style they have worked on so much was abandoned to a certain extent in last year’s AI Semi Final. How do they plan to approach the league this year will be interesting? They will use it to bed in some of last year’s successful Under 21s and how much tinkering is done will determine their success in this year’s campaign. There is growing sense of optimism in Waterford that an elusive All Ireland is not far away; the league may take a back seat.

Clare (8/1 Outright) The 2016 League Champions face into a new campaign without the presence of Davy Fitzgerald since 2011. Under the new management team of Donal Moloney and Gerry O’Connor, hopes are high. Last year’s joint captain Cian Dillon made some insightful comments at the league launch last week re their approach to tactics this year.  “We're looking to hurl off the cuff really, express ourselves, play with that freedom and do what's natural”. One criticism of Davy Fitzgerald’s reign was their dependence on a system focused primarily on their use of a sweeper, this indicates a move away from this policy. A possible problem for Clare in this years league campaign is the unavailability of the Ballyea contingent (Tony Kelly, Jack Browne, Paul Flanagan etc.) plus the large numbers of their players involved in Fitzgibbon hurling will not help.

Cork (16/1 Outright). A terrible 2016 with only 2 positives, a win in their relegation play off v Galway and a lucky win v a Dublin team with 14 men for 2nd half in championship. We believe that it will be between Cork and Dublin for the drop to 1B, we'll side with Cork to just shade this.

Dublin (33/1 Outright) have reached crossroads under the stewardship of Ger Cunningham. Rumblings of discontent have been rumoured throughout the winter with former players Michael Carton and Conal Keaney going public with his concerns. Many of last year’s U21 Leinster winning team will be given the chance to fill the void left by the departure of many experienced heads. No Niall Corcoran, Johnny McCaffrey, Peter Kelly, Paul Ryan, Danny Sutcliffe, Joey Boland, Shane Durkan, Conal Keaney leaves a massive experience deficit, they will struggle.

Division 1B: The Promotion Battle

In terms of picking a winner of the league this year, it is important to note that the last 2 champions both came from Division 1B. We believe that Galway (11/2 outright win Division 1)) are best placed for this. The major issue for the Tribesman over the past few seasons has been consistency in league and championship. They should have beaten Tipperary in last years All Ireland semi-final, but were very poor in Leinster Final (2^nd half) against Kilkenny. We think Galway need to string a number of good performances together to build that winning mentality and consistency that has halted their quest for Liam in recent times. The league is the place to do that, we expect them to achieve promotion to 1A, also would not rule out their presence in the final in April. They are 4/5 to be promoted.

Limerick (9/1 to win Division 1) have been languishing in Division 1B since its inception in 2012, finishing 2^nd all of these years. Under new manager John Kiely, there will be a massive emphasis put on league promotion to 1A. The crucial game for Limericks promotion is in our opinion this Sunday in Wexford. Win that, and that will set up a clash with Galway which will decide promotion. This Sundays game against Wexford is in my opinion one of the games of the weekend. Davy Fitz first real competitive game over the yellowbellies should see a feisty close affair. Limerick are missing Shane Dowling, Kevin Downes, Gavin O’Mahony and Tom Condon for this clash, they might struggle down there and anything other than a win would dash their promotion hopes. They are 6/4 to be promoted, I would steer clear.

As mentioned above Wexford (25/1 to win Division 1 outright) are hosting Limerick this weekend in Wexford Park. Wexford chairman Diarmuid Devereux has stated the primary aim of Fitzgerald’s reign is promotion to 1A. We believe that Wexford have an excellent chance against Limerick this weekend. This is dependent on their injury situation. Liam Og McGovern, Andrew Shore and Shane Tomkins will be absent for the league but there are doubts over the availability of Conor McDonald and Jack Guiney for this weekend’s clash. If they are available we believe Wexford will win, if they are not, we will enjoy the clash from an non betting point of view. They are 5/1 to be promoted, a nice price but they have to travel to Salthill on the 19^th February. This may be a step too far for them.

Offaly, Laois and Kerry make up the rest of 1B. We would rule out any of these teams making a promotion push but they can influence what happens above them. Offaly have beaten Limerick and Wexford in recent seasons and are capable of a once off result like that. Under new manager Kevin Ryan, they will want to make their mark in the league and become a more consistent outfit. Last season Offaly beat a Wexford side by 8 points in Wexford park in an outstanding performance. One week later, they fell flat on their face getting beaten by Kerry in Birr. Watch out for the Laois Offaly clash on the 18^th February, this game will have a major influence on who makes up the relegation playoff on the 1^st April.