Tough time for Donegal and Cavan - Division 1 Preview

It is important to remember that this year there are no league semi-finals, so teams need to be ready to go from the off in they are still to be playing league football come April 9^th. In order to reach the final, the magic number of points reached needs to be 9. Since 2013 the minimum points total for a team finishing second was 9, while generally 10 or 11pts will have you sitting pretty at the top. (The exception being the Dubs last year finishing with 14pts)

Our Selections;

Tyrone to reach the final –          1pt @ 6/4

Donegal to be relegated –           1.5pts @ 7/4 (Ladbrokes)

Cavan to be relegated -                2.5pts @ 8/11

The 4 Time Champs

No better place to start our preview than looking at the Dubs. The back to back All Ireland Champs are entering the 2017 Allianz League campaign chasing an unprecedented 5^th Division 1 title in a row. You can get them at 5/4 on the Outright Market and a general 6/4 to finish top, something which they have done twice since 2013. Looking at their fixtures, they face Tyrone, Mayo and Roscommon at HQ while the Hill 16 travelling army are on the road for the other four games, travelling to Cavan, Donegal, Kerry & Monaghan. Considering they have four games on the road, along with not having the club tied Vincent’s, you have to wonder can they do it again. I’m sure Jim Gavin will be looking to give upcoming players opportunities to showcase their talents, especially in midfield where they need to find a settled partner for the excellent Brian Fenton.  With every team in the division chomping at the bit to take them down, at the prices quoted we do not see much value in backing them for the 5 in row.

The Pretenders

Second in the Outright market are Kerry, who reached the final last year only to be hammered by the dubs. While they lost Marc O’Shea & Aidan O’Mahony to retirement over the winter, the kingdom will be buoyed by the news that the old dog Kieran Donaghy is going to slog it out for another year. They have used the McGrath Cup to test out some of their successful minor teams and are looking to build a panel for the championship. They are 7/2 in the Outright betting and 11/4 to finish top. Interestingly they will play Mayo, Dublin & Tyrone in Killarney which must give them a chance of getting into the top two. Obviously it could prove foolish to write both Kerry and Dublin off, but we feel there are better value options available. Kerry will be focusing on September and that should be taken into account if you have throwing a few quid on them.

Mayo & Tyrone are next in the Outright Market, both priced at 9/2. It is difficult to decipher the Mayo puzzle, continually coming so close to winning Sam only to find new ways to lose it each time. A team holiday in South Africa will have been a welcome distraction for the players over the winter, returning less than two weeks ago it does leave some of their star players lacking some match practice. It will be Saturday Night Lights this year for Mayo as their first four games all down for a 19:00 throw in. They traditionally start slow in the league and with uncertainty about what way Mayo will approach this league campaign, they are best avoided.

On the other hand, Tyrone will be looking to compete again on their return to Division 1. They did suffer a blow with the loss of star shooter Conor McAliskey and questions still remain if they have a reliable free taker. They should relish visits to HQ and Killarney and can be backed at 6/4 to finish in the top two. Micky Harte will feel that they left the game against Mayo behind them last summer, and there is no better manager to instil belief in a squad than Harte. Every Tyrone player will believe they have what it takes to go toe to toe with the best in the Division.

The Outsiders

Looking further down the league we have Donegal & Monaghan at 16/1 and both Roscommon & Cavan at 25s. It is difficult to make a case for any of these to win outright so our focus will be on “To Be Relegated” market.

We believe that we are beginning to see the end of the great Donegal team of the early part of this decade. In total they will be missing up to 9 players from last year’s panel. Eamon McGee, Christy Toye, David Walsh, Colm McFadden, & Rory Kavanagh have all retired, while Leo McLoone and Odhran MacNiallais have opted out for the year. Anthony Thompson is unable to commit to the start of the league campaign while big Neil Gallagher is out with a hip injury. Plenty will be expected of Paddy McBrearty this season and he will have to take more responsibility if they are to stay up. It is probably the loss of MacNiallais which will hit Donegal the hardest. A superbly gifted footballer, his running from midfield and ability to kick long rang scores will be missed. They are 7/4 to be relegated and we are happy to take a punt at this price.

Roscommon who shocked everyone last season in the league need to build on that campaign of last year. However, their championship form was atrocious which immediately puts Kevin Mcstay under pressure if they carry that form into this year’s league. They do have some good young players, but are still lacking a midfield partnership that can win primary possession when it is most needed. McStay is now the sole man in charge with Fergie O’Donnell stepping down after their championship exit. Playing their home games again at The Hyde will help their cause and we can see them collecting enough points to stay up.

Cavan are newly promoted and sure to find life difficult in Division 1. They parted ways with Terry Hyland over the Summer and will be looking to this campaign at a litmus test to see where they are placed amongst the elite teams. They do have some good young players from successful U21 teams and with Tyrone native Mattie McGleenan now in charge they are hoping to play a more expansive game. With four trips on the road they are a general 8/11 to be relegated and we fancy a bit of that!

Monaghan might take a few scalps along the way, we would fancy them to give Mayo a run for their money on Match day 1. Malachy O’Rourke has done a super job with his team but they do seem to be over reliant on Conor McManus for their scores. They have some tricky fixtures, but I would expect them to have enough quality to pick up enough points to continue their stay in the Division.