No Goals Please! - Mayo Cavan

Selection: 1.5pt Under 1.5 goals Mayo vs Cavan at 5/4 (Boylesports)
Both teams come into this game on the back of defeats and it was the manner of these losses which will concern followers of both teams. Mayo were quite simply abysmal against Dublin, and showed signs of widespread panic once Dublin got their goal. That was quite surprising considering they are such an experienced team and they will be looking to today's game to right some of those wrongs. Cavan in the first half of their game against Tyrone were excellent but they never turned up for the second 35mins and only troubled the scoreboard on one occasion in the second period. 

After four games played both teams have only scored the one goal each so it's fair to say they are struggling to create goal scoring opportunities. Mayo's goal came from a penalty against Roscommon while Gearoid McKiernan bagged a goal for Cavan against Tyrone. I'm sure Cavan will look to place McKiernan at full forward during spells of the game to test Mayo's so called vulnerability under the high ball. However, 2016 All Star Brendan Harrison returns for Mayo and he should match up well against McKiernan. Both teams will be desperate to keep clean sheets and don't be surprised if Mayo revert back to using a sweeper again. We like the 5/4 Boylesports are offering on under 1.5 goals considering the troubles both sets of forwards are having.  

Our Pre League Predictions - State of Play

	League Predictions	Stake	Price	Price now
	Div 4: Wexford to be promoted	5 pts	4/5	1/66
	Div 3: Sligo to be relegated	2 pts	2/1	20/1
	Div 3: Armagh to be promoted	3 pts	8/11
	Div 2: Galway to be promoted	2 pts	5/4	4/7
	Div 2: Meath to be promoted	1 pt	2/1	11/4
	Div 1: Tyrone to reach final	1 pt	6/4	8/11
	Div 1: Cavan to be relegated	2.5 pts	8/11	1/50
	Div 1: Donegal to be relegated	1.5 pts	7/4	33/1
	Hurling:Galway to be promoted	2 pts	Loss	Loss

Tight game expected in Ballybofey

Selection: 4pts on under 29.5pts in Donegal vs Tyrone at 5/6 (Paddypower) 

It's Saturday night lights in Ballybofey this weekend where old foes Donegal and Tyrone go head to head in round 5 of the Allianz Football League. In last years Ulster Final, Tyrone finally were able to get one over on Donegal in an absolutely engrossing encounter last summer. However, up until that day Donegal were always the dominant force when these two sides met, which unsurprisingly coincided with the Jim McGuinness era. 

Since 2012, these sides have met on 6 occasions in both League and Championship

2012 Ulster Championship Donegal 0-12 0-10 Tyrone 

2013 Allianz League Donegal 1-13 0-12 Tyrone 

2013 Ulster Championship Donegal 2-10 0-10 Tyrone 

2015 Allianz League Donegal 1-13 0-06 Tyrone 

2015 Ulster Championship Donegal 1-13 1-10 Tyrone 

2016 Ulster Final Tyrone 0-13 0-11 Donegal 

There are a couple of interesting things to take from the above. In 6 meetings Tyrone have only managed to score one goal. In their four games in the league this year, they have only managed to score one. While they are a gifted young team, they struggle to create goal chances, especially against other teams from Ulster. Both of these teams play counter attack football and at times they seem to cancel each other out which aids our selection. 

Since 2012 on every occasion, the result has always been under 29.5pts. The only occasion it came close was in 2015 when the total was 29pts. Every single score is hard earned when these teams meet and we all no there is no love lost between them. Both teams will be trying to lay down a marker for a possible meeting later in the summer.

Also the weather the last few days has been pretty bleak and the forecast for Atlantic counties is to remain unsettled until Sunday. Donegal is under a yellow rain warning as well and if these conditions remain it will only aid our selection of Under 29.5pts.

Jump on this bet quickly as Boylesports have the line at under 27.5pts at 4/5 so the value is there with PP! 

No Goals Needed Please

Waterford v Cork

Goals will not be the order of the day tomorrow in Walsh Park. Waterford thus far in this years league have not completely abandoned their defensive system of previous years. This has reaped dividends so far as you can see below, they have conceded only 1 goal. Cork on the other hand are struggling to score goals, 1 goal in 3 games. Based on this evidence, we recommend a 3.5 point stake on under 3.5 goals at 4/7.

Results so far

Cork 0-21 Clare 1-11

Cork 1-14 Dublin 2-19

Kilkenny 0-22 Cork 0-15

Kilkenny 0-17 Waterford 1-15

Waterford 0-15 Tipperary 1-18

Dublin 1-17 Waterford 2-19

Experimental Limericks Defensive Frailties to Continue

Laois v Limerick

An injury hit Laois aim to bounce back from their 26 point mauling against Galway with a much improved performance against Limerick. The absence of key players Matt Whelan, Cha Dwyer and Picky Maher was too much of a mountain to climb and this was a significant influence on the Galway result. Their results so far:

Kerry 3-14 Laois 0-19

Laois 1-26 Offaly 1-20

Galway 3-31 Laois 1-11

Ignoring the Galway performance, they have contributed themselves to two high scoring games. This is mainly down to the performances of Ross King, Willie Dunphy, Cha Dwyer and Picky Maher. Although Maher remains absent, Dwyer returns tonight. This is a massive addition after his 5 point performance against Offaly. Laois' forwards have buckets of abilities and we fancy Laois to beat 17.5 points @ 10/11.

Limericks performances so far have been patchy. They are already resigned to spending another season in Division 1B. They have used the league this far to try out as many players as possible, using 29 players. This weekend is to be no different, with 10 changes from last weekends win against Offaly. Their results so far:

Wexford 1-14 Limerick 0-14

Limerick 6-21 Kerry 3-08

Limerick 1-25 Offaly 3-15. 

Defensively conceding 3 goals in each of the last 2 games is a worry for John Kiely. Tonight, Richie English is given a chance to make a claim for Richie McCarthys number 3 jersey. We expect this concession of scores to continue tonight and our selection is a 1.5 point stake on Laois to score over 17.5 points @ 10/11

Laois to Feel the Wrath of Galway Backlash

Galway(-11.5) v Laois NHL. 3 pt stake @ 5/6

This Sunday sees the visit of the O Moore Men to Salthill. Although coming off the back of a win crucial win against local rivals Offaly, we feel that Laois potentially could receive a big beating from the Tribesmen here.

Galway have named a very strong team and in Flynn, Mannion and Conor Cooney, have the forwards to put a big score on Laois. Joe Canning should also make an appearance off the bench. Laois have had injury troubles all week and are without Picky Maher and Matthew Whelan for this. Cha Dwyer and Ben Conroy were also rumoured doubts earlier in week.

We would expect to see a significant Galway response to their defeat to Wexford. Although conditions are expected to be poor, expect to see plenty of goalmouth action. Laois have conceded 3-14 to Kerry and 1-20 to an Offaly team with 13 players for most of second half. Galway scored 6-23 against Offaly and 3-13 against Wexford. Laois look defensively vulnerable and with a change at centre back, take Galway (-11.5)  @ 5/6 (Bet365)

Kerry Machine to Roll Over Ross

3pts at Evens Kerry to score over 16.5pts vs Roscommon (Boylesports)

A high scoring game is expected with relegation a real possibility for the loser. To date Roscommon have conceded 18pts to Tyrone, 16pts against Donegal and 1-19 against Mayo. The fact Mayo scored 1-19 while still kicking 15 wides just shows how much time and space they allow. Kerry shot the lights out against Donegal in round 1 scoring 2-17, how we would love for that to happen again! They played brilliant in the first 35mins against Mayo, created 4 excellent goal scoring chances but never turned up in the second half. Eventually they finished with 1-10 which they could not better against Monaghan either. They are still creating goal chances though and with Roscommon offering up opportunities we like Kerrys forward division to blossom in this. 

Their team has been named, and having Donnacha Walsh back from suspension is a boost. Their full forward line of Barry John Keane, James O'Donoghue and Paul Geaney oozes quality and would put the fear of God into any full back line! Anthony Maher is named on the bench which is also a plus, as Roscommon are weak at midfield and if Kerry can get on top around the middle of the park early, the scoring opportunities will arrive! Last time these two sides met Kerry scored 3-15 and something similar would be nice.

1.5pts at 11/10 Under 1.5gls Tyrone vs Monaghan (Bet365)

Nothing like an all Ulster affair, played in wet and wild spring conditions to wet the appetite! Healy Park in Omagh was deemed unplayable last weekend, with a very late call from the referee to call off the match. How much the pitch will have improved in the space on 6 days is questionable, considering all the rain we have had since. We hope it gets the all clear which would help our selection of under 1.5gls. We all know both teams play defensive football and I'm sure Micky Harte will have been working all week on a system to shut down Monaghan's forwards. 

Going back through their previous meetings goals have always been hard come by. In 2013 it finished 0-14 to 0-12 to Tyrone while in 2014 it finished 1-12 to 0-14 to Monaghan. They met twice in 2015 with the league meeting resulting in a Monaghan win 1-13 to 0-9 but Tyrone gained revenge in the championship with a 0-18 to 0-14 win. Interesting to see that Tyrone failed to score a single goal in all those matches. 

To their credit Monaghan have been impressive so far in the league but the likes of McManus and Co will be tightly watched tonight. We expect the meeting to be a tight battle and the wet and wilder it is the better! 

Testing Times for Cork & Kilkenny Forwards

Kilkenny Cork 46 points or under 10/11 (Bet365) Edited 4/3/17 at 12.25pm

The current unpredictability of the NHL has caused us to look at other betting propositions this weekend. Our choice this weekend is 44 points or under in Kilkenny v Cork, our reasons being;
1. No game in Div 1a has seen this tally beaten this season, in fact only 1 out of the first 6 games has beaten 40 points.
2. Conditions: dreadful weather forecast for this weekend will not help any potential high scoring affairs. If in doubt, wait until Sunday morning to see how bad conditions are.
3. Form: neither teams form has been good so far and much of this is down to their forward divisions. Kilkenny have averaged 14.5 points in their 1st two games, Cork with an improved tally of 19 points. Only 1 goal has been scored between them. There is a genuine concern in Kilkenny regarding their forward line.

We recommend a 2 point stake at 10/11.